Randomness, Predictability and Causation

We probably are in basic agreement, but at the heart of randomness is whether or not something is predictable, as opposed to whether or not it is causal.

For example, the deterministic chaos that defines so many natural phenomena is fully causal, and yet the behavior of chaotic systems can be virtually unpredictable or sometimes completely unpredictable given our current capabilities.

We can safely predict that another mass extinction event will occur sometime in the future (if we are lucky, then not until the Sun goes into its red giant phase), but we cannot accurately predict when such an event will occur.

Here’s an interesting question to ponder. If a nuclear war does occur at some time in the future, would we say it was predictable? Some say it is inevitable. Some say we will always find a way to back down from this form of mutual mass suicide.